Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Thomas Condron, and I'm just an everyday citizen from the United States who has taken an interest in prediction markets. I've been actively trading on platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket for a while now, and I wanted to share my thoughts on the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets, as published in 91 FR 12516. I strongly support well-regulated prediction markets and believe they have real value for society, not just for traders like me.
I first got into prediction markets because I was frustrated with how often polls and pundits get things wrong. Whether it's an election or some big economic event, the forecasts on these platforms have consistently been more accurate than what I see on TV or read online. That better information isn't just useful for me when I trade; it's something the public, the media, and even policymakers can benefit from. It's a tool for clearer decision-making, and I think that's worth protecting.
I also want to stress that trading on these markets isn't gambling. It takes research and judgment, just like investing in stocks or other commodities. I've spent hours digging into data and news to make informed trades, often to hedge against real-world risks, like how a policy change might affect my finances. Classifying event contracts as "gaming" feels like a misunderstanding of their purpose. They serve legitimate economic needs, like price discovery and risk management. I think the CFTC should recognize that, especially when addressing questions 15 through 22 about defining gaming versus legitimate markets.
Another thing that worries me is the idea of banning or over-restricting these markets. I trade on regulated platforms like Kalshi because I trust there's oversight and accountability. If the CFTC clamps down too hard, people like me will get pushed to unregulated offshore platforms where there's no protection at all. That's not safer for anyone. On a related note, I believe the U.S. should be leading the way in financial innovation. If we stifle prediction markets here, other countries will step in, and we'll lose out on shaping this space. This ties into questions 7 through 14 on balancing innovation with consumer protection, and I think regulation, not restriction, is the right balance.
I've also read some of the academic research on prediction markets, and the data backs up their value. Economists have shown they aggregate information efficiently, often better than traditional methods. Transparency in this data is key, and I think the CFTC should encourage that as part of its approach.
I'm not blind to concerns like manipulation or insider trading, but the CFTC already has tools to handle those issues. Use them, don't punish everyone by shutting down a useful market. I urge you to support proportionate regulation of prediction markets and avoid broad bans or overly tight rules that would harm their potential.
Thank you for considering my input.
Sincerely,
Thomas Condron
