Comment Text:
Comment of Jeremy Dietz on RIN 3038-AF65, Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets, 91 Fed. Reg. 12516 (March 16, 2026). Submitted in personal capacity. Full comment attached as PDF.
The comment is grounded in original cross-venue data drawn from the public APIs of Kalshi and Polymarket on April 27, 2026 (37,382 active Polymarket markets, 10,165 active Kalshi markets), with reproducible scripts published at github.com/JDSource/clearmarket.
The comment makes three structural recommendations:
(1) Under Core Principle 2 (Q2.b), DCMs should be required to disclose, at the time of contract listing, structured machine-readable resolution metadata: resolution mechanism, resolution source type, resolution source name and URL with explicit source-priority and tie-breaking rules, proposer model, and resolution triggers. The four prominent prediction-market resolution failures of the past 24 months were not failures of disclosure presence; they were failures of placeholder language that did not specify which source controls when sources conflict. The data shows placeholder language in 64.1% of all active Polymarket markets and 98.4% of geopolitics markets by volume, concentrated where stakes are highest.
(2) Under Core Principle 3 (Q2.c), susceptibility-to-manipulation analysis should explicitly contemplate resolution-source manipulation, a class of attack that has no direct equivalent in commodity futures.
(3) For Q5.a, a regulator-mandated per-contract identifier at listing (following the CUSIP/LEI/UPI operating model) would materially improve SDR reporting and surveillance, with cross-venue canonical-event clustering left to a market-driven layer.
The comment also addresses Q12 (event contracts as adjacent to parametric insurance) and Q29–32 (the insider-information vector created by placeholder language).
