Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Skye Holt, and I'm a regular citizen from California writing to share my thoughts on the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets, as published in 91 FR 12516. I've been actively trading on platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket for a while now, and I strongly support the idea of well-regulated prediction markets. I believe they provide real value to people like me, and I want to see the CFTC create rules that protect consumers without shutting down these useful tools.
I rely on prediction markets to make sense of uncertain events that affect my life, like elections or economic policy changes. The prices on these platforms often give me insights I can't find in news or polls, and I think that's a benefit for everyone, not just traders. I've put time into researching and understanding these events to make informed trades, which feels a lot like the work I do when investing in stocks. This isn't gambling to me; it's a serious way to engage with the world and even hedge against risks that hit close to home, like how policy shifts might impact my cost of living.
I'm especially concerned about the idea of classifying event contracts as gaming. That label doesn't fit. These contracts serve real purposes, like helping me and others gauge risks and make decisions. Calling them gaming risks pushing activity to unregulated offshore platforms, which are far less safe than a regulated market like Kalshi. I've seen firsthand how a structured, overseen platform provides transparency and protections that you just don't get in unregulated spaces. Banning or over-restricting these markets won't stop people from participating; it’ll just drive us to riskier alternatives.
I also believe the CFTC already has solid tools to handle issues like manipulation and insider trading. There's no need for heavy-handed bans when you can enforce the rules you’ve got. On the flip side, informed trading actually helps. When people with knowledge trade, it makes the prices more accurate, which benefits everyone looking at those numbers. This ties into questions 29 and 31 from your notice, about the role of informed traders and insider trading risks. I think the focus should be on enforcing existing laws against bad actors, not limiting the market as a whole.
I appreciate that the CFTC is seeking input before drafting rules. My ask is simple: please support proportionate regulation that keeps prediction markets accessible to everyday people like me while addressing real risks with targeted solutions. Don't let broad restrictions or misclassifications shut down something that’s valuable and can be safe under your oversight.
Thank you for considering my perspective.
Sincerely,
Skye Holt
