Comment Text:
I strongly encourage the CFTC to prohibit the use of prediction markets such as Kalshi or Polymarket for placing bets on sensitive events of any major significance, such as elections, military operations, natural disaster response, or acts of violence or terrorism. Aside from the fact that harnessing such events for personal financial gain is morally repugnant, the way the system is designed makes it possible, even very likely, that wagers placed on such events will actually influence the outcome of those events.
The additional issue of insiders using their knowledge of proprietary or classified government information is a cause for alarm. There is already evidence suggesting links between recent events such as the conflict in Iran and bets placed shortly before those events actually occurred. Such manipulation is not only unethical and immoral, but presents the real risk of telegraphing the intended actions of the U.S. government to adversaries. This is an unacceptable and dangerous violation of national security.
