Comment Text:
Prediction markets need to have some sort of regulation. I am not smart enough to tell you what should be done. However, people being able to manipulate the outcome from having insider knowledge to me sounds like insider trading just with a different coat of paint on it. The very nature of having a prediction changes has a very notable affect on what the outcome will be. If someone makes a bet on whether or not a CEO will unveil a new product on a set date and said CEO sees this prediction...there is nothing stopping that CEO from having an affect on the outcome. If I make a bet if a war will be started in some country and people who have power to make powerful world impacting decisions see that bet, money can easily be thrown around and people in power who could have perhaps stopped a conflict to happen will now do nothing since they have insider knowledge that their will be a conflict. They put some money down on the bet and make a huge profit because a conflict that they could have at least played a part in attempting to stop has now happened. Could a case be made that it was going to happen anyway? sure it can. But now since money was involved, it corrupts our decisions. Imagine if during the Titan sub implosion so many years ago had a prediction on it before we found out what happened. It would probably be "how long until the people are rescued". And people would place bets on outcomes. Why does something like that need to have bets involved. it gets people financially invested in things and in people who have no business having that put on them. Now rescuers who are there to help people are being unwillingly thrown in a market that they had no say in but because they rescued people too quickly and some people lost money on a bet, now they get threats and angry letters. It doesn't help anyone. If it were up to me, I think prediction markets should count as gambling and should be heavily regulated if not outright banned. I don't believe it adds anything to our society than just making us all more hostile to one another.
