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I came to place this comment after hearing about it on the YouTube channel Some More News when they recommended it in their recent video about Polymarket and other "prediction markets." I, like other left-leaning people who watch their videos, agree with all their statements, from prediction markets being literally gambling and should be regulated as such, and destructive to both our moral fiber and collective well-being as a species.
I recommend that Polymarket and any company like it should be heavily regulated and treated at least like a casino or any other place meant for gambling, if not closed entirely. I also think that steps should be taken to ensure that the common practice of individuals placing bets they know will happen, such as an example cited in the SMN video, Jeff Bezos's son learning his father wouldn't be attending the Super Bowl and placing a massive bet on that happening, should be considered insider trading and punished accordingly.
Another problem mentioned in the video that I would like to see addressed is prediction markets use of "market makers", rich investors they made deals with to put bets on either side of any given bet placed on the site. To quote SMN, "the idea is to never reject someone's bet, no matter how stupid, and always have someone to put up against the gambler." However, these investors also get special privileges not available to the average consumer, like sophisticated data and models meant to guarantee the odds will always be in their favor, and they will always get a return on their money. To again quote SMN, "gambling [at least] implies that there's a fair chance. This is more like if you sat down at a poker table and not realising that half the players work at the casino and know what cards are being dealt." Again, this is insider trading and should be treated as such.
One final topic that should be addressed is Universal Market Access or UMAs. They are technically a separate entity from prediction markets, but still undeniably a feature of the whole system that is incredibly anti-consumer. To sum them up, UMA's are the thing prediction markets use to determine whether or not a bet is "true". The issue is that UMA is a digital token that anyone can buy with enough money. This means that anyone with a LOT of money can buy more than enough tokens to sway whether or not a bet with a disputed ruling goes in their favor. For example, in the bet where Volodymyr Zelensky would wear a suit to a NATO summit, he wore an outfit resembling a suit, and news outlets even reported it as a suit, but UMA's still ruled in favor of it not being a suit. You can see the problem, and I hope I don't have to explain to you what should be done about it.
to sum up, not only are prediction markets functionally casinos where you could bet on anything, they are designed in ways to guarantee that only the already wealthy will come out on top. It is my opinion, and most likely the opinion of the 943,000 subscribers of Some More News, that prediction markets, including Kalshi and Polymarket, should be either harshly regulated as gambling or dismantled and liquidated in their entirety.
