Comment Text:
No rule governing prediction markets is harsh enough. This is an industry that will personally incentivize all actors, including foreign actors and anyone of any political affiliation, who manipulate serious life and societal consequences. It's bad enough that we have anyone at any level of government or society who can be personally enriched from starting wars or withholding human rights and human needs resources. But until this, at least that was limited to a handful of ultra-wealthy, ultra-connected people.
Prediction markets are egregiously a net-negative on the well-being of the world. This is far worse than just sports gambling, or traditional gambling, or even stock markets, when the "winners" and "losers" are often limited to people with more money than sense. If a person bets on a sports game, people who didn't bet at all are completely unaffected by any result. However, with a prediction market, if someone bets on a war or whether a governmental agency organizes to save lives, innocent people who didn't consent to be a part of the exchange will nonetheless be caught up in the tug-of-war of all the bettors.
Prediction markets should be completely abolished. Failing that, if we must have these prediction markets, they should be highly limited to only events that only affect one person, or at least not society at large. If a bunch of people want to gamble on what date Taylor Swift marries, fine; it's unimportant in society. But once other countries or foreign policy becomes the subject, it must be rendered illegal. It is, at the very least, extremely unethical. It should not exist at all.
