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I got into trading on Kalshi around Summer of 2022 via one of its early 'partners' or co-sponsor "TheStockGuy" on Twitch. He had a little tagline of "can you beat your local Weatherperson" on Kalshi which got me intrigued... I trade stocks occasionally and invest, but I never heard of anything like "betting on the weather". I am a Meteorologist that works in the private sector, and though my job entails mostly hail forecasting, I knew there were likely resources others may not know that I can use to my benefit. At first, there were certainly things I had an edge on, like watching the observation sensors at the airports and comparing them to the forecast hour by hour. For example, it is noon and the forecast of models is colder than what it is being reported, in that case me and traders would adjust our positions as needed. Additionally, we can watch live visible satellite and watch cloud cover whether it may be approaching an area or becoming sunnier than expected as well. All this information went hand in hand with real time market moving and adjusting itself accordingly quicker than even the National Weather Service ever could! It was fascinating, and this was all publicly available to anyone. With Kalshi's popularity increasing over time, we also had to adjust with traders' knowledge on data available...my 'edge' I previously had definitely dwindled a bit as traders learned the data and contributing factors along the way.
So instead of, let's say; going to a casino where the house has the house has the edge, you find YOUR edge and utilize it against others like yourself.
Best part is, you can cash out early if price moves in your favor before any event even happens.
I also enjoy longer term weather trades like "Monthly Tornado Count". This demands knowledge of long-term weather forecasting and what requirements and environment may need for tornadoes. What helps is I've been chasing tornadoes since 2012 and exposed to severe weather forecasting for over a decade. This is still an evolving market, and I see traders improve as the months go on.
Briefly touching on SPX daily/hourly trades. I also started quite early around middle of 2022. I traded/day traded stocks and SPX already on a brokerage; but as many may know, you cannot trade an equity in the same day more than 3 times a week if you have under a certain amount of cash available. Kalshi was a game changer here! You could get in and out of a trade as many times as you wanted in a day. I had some experience on stock patterns/momentum and overall tracked economic news and factors. It was a great way to hedge certain data that came out like "Jobless numbers" "CPI" and whatnot. Nowadays you can trade inflation data directly on Kalshi and on top of it trade its impacts on the market on an hourly or even yearly level with others.
