Comment Text:
I am deeply concerned about event contract derivatives traded on prediction markets. The current trajectory of prediction markets raises serious concerns about market integrity, insider trading, and the commodification of events that should remain outside the realm of financial speculation. Event contracts that allow wagering on military operations, foreign policy decisions, terrorism, assassination, or other government actions create unacceptable risks because individuals with nonpublic information about those decisions have both the opportunity and financial incentive to exploit that information. When citizens perceive that government decisions may be influenced by private financial interests, it erodes public trust.
I urge the Commission to use its authority to explicitly prohibit event contracts related to military operations, acts of war, terrorism, political assassinations, and non-financial government policy decisions as contrary to the public interest. Additionally, any event contract where the outcome can be known in advance or controlled by a specific individual or small group is inherently susceptible to manipulation and should face a presumption against approval. This includes award show results, political speeches, corporate announcements, and any event where insiders have advance knowledge.
